Forecasting intensifying disturbance effects on coral reefs

Anticipating future changes of an ecosystem's dynamics requires knowledge of how its key communities respond to current environmental regimes. The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is under threat, with rapid changes of its reef‐building hard coral (HC) community structure already evident across broad spatial scales. While several underlying relationships between HC and multiple disturbances have been documented, responses of other benthic communities to disturbances are not well understood. Here we used statistical modelling to explore the effects of broad‐scale climate‐related disturbances on benthic communities to predict their structure under scenarios of increasing disturbance frequency. We parameterized a multivariate model using the composition of benthic communities estimated by 145,000 observations from the northern GBR between 2012 and 2017. During this time, surveyed reefs were variously impacted by two tropical cyclones and two heat stress events that resulted in extensive HC mortality. This unprecedented sequence of disturbances was used to estimate the effects of discrete versus interacting disturbances on the compositional structure of HC, soft corals (SC) and algae. Discrete disturbances increased the prevalence of algae relative to HC while the interaction between cyclones and heat stress was the main driver of the increase in SC relative to algae and HC. Predictions from disturbance scenarios included relative increases in algae versus SC that varied by the frequency and types of disturbance interactions. However, high uncertainty of compositional changes in the presence of several disturbances shows that responses of algae and SC to the decline in HC needs further research. Better understanding of the effects of multiple disturbances on benthic communities as a whole is essential for predicting the future status of coral reefs and managing them in the light of new environmental regimes. The approach we develop here opens new opportunities for reaching this goal.     

Intraspecific mating system evolution and its effect on complex male secondary sexual traits: Does male–male competition increase selection on size or shape?

Sexual selection is generally held responsible for the exceptional diversity in secondary sexual traits in animals. Mating system evolution is therefore expected to profoundly affect the covariation between secondary sexual traits and mating success. Whereas there is such evidence at the interspecific level, data within species remain scarce. We here investigate sexual selection acting on the exaggerated male fore femur and the male wing in the common and widespread dung flies Sepsis punctum and S. neocynipsea (Diptera: Sepsidae). Both species exhibit intraspecific differences in mating systems and variation in sexual size dimorphism (SSD) across continents that correlates with the extent of male–male competition. We predicted that populations subject to increased male–male competition will experience stronger directional selection on the sexually dimorphic male foreleg. Our results suggest that fore femur size, width and shape were indeed positively associated with mating success in populations with male‐biased SSD in both species, which was not evident in conspecific populations with female‐biased SSD. However, this was also the case for wing size and shape, a trait often assumed to be primarily under natural selection. After correcting for selection on overall body size by accounting for allometric scaling, we found little evidence for independent selection on any of these size or shape traits in legs or wings, irrespective of the mating system. Sexual dimorphism and (foreleg) trait exaggeration is therefore unlikely to be driven by direct precopulatory sexual selection, but more so by selection on overall size or possibly selection on allometric scaling.     

Threshold responses of riverine fish communities to land use conversion across regions of the world

The growing human enterprise has sparked greater interest in identifying ecological thresholds in land use conversion beyond which populations or communities demonstrate abrupt nonlinear or substantive change in species composition. Such knowledge remains fundamental to understanding ecosystem resilience to environmental degradation and informing land use planning into the future. Confronting this challenge has been largely limited to inferring thresholds in univariate metrics of species richness and indices of biotic integrity and has largely ignored how land use legacies of the past may shape community responses of today. By leveraging data for 13,069 riverine sites from temperate, subtropical, and boreal climate zones on four continents, we characterize patterns of community change along diverse gradients of urbanization and agricultural land use, and identity threshold values beyond which significant alterations in species composition exists. Our results demonstrate the apparent universality by which freshwater fish communities are sensitive to even low levels of watershed urbanization (range of threshold values: 1%–12%), but consistently higher (and more variable) levels of agricultural development (2%–37%). We demonstrated that fish community compositional thresholds occurred, in general, at lower levels of watershed urbanization and agriculture when compared to threshold responses in species richness. This supports the notion that aggregated taxon‐specific responses may better reflect the complexity of assemblage responses to land use development. We further revealed that the ghost of land use past plays an important role in moderating how current‐day fish communities respond to land use intensification. Subbasins of the United States experiencing greater rates of past land use change demonstrated higher current‐day thresholds. Threshold responses of community composition, such as those identified in our study, illustrate the need for globally coordinated efforts to prioritize country‐specific management and policy initiatives that ensure that freshwater fish diversity is not inevitably lost in the future.     

An ancient solution to a modern problem

The dearth of new antibiotics and escalating emergence of multidrug resistant bacteria have created a global healthcare crisis and highlight the drastic need for novel antimicrobial agents. Complementary and alternative strategies including the investigation of ancient medicinals could address this problem. Natural clay minerals with a long history of medicinal and biomedical applications have become an interest due to their broad-spectrum antimicrobial activity. Such untapped natural sources may provide new therapeutic agents in the battle against infectious diseases in the post-antibiotic era.     

Confidently identifying the correct K value using the ΔK method: When does K = 2?

Populations delineated based on genetic data are commonly used for wildlife conservation and management. Many studies use the program structure combined with the ΔK method to identify the most probable number of populations (K). We recently found K = 2 was identified more often when studies used ΔK compared to studies that did not. We suggested two reasons for this: hierarchical population structure leads to underestimation, or the ΔK method does not evaluate K = 1 causing an overestimation. The present contribution aims to develop a better understanding of the limits of the method using one, two and three population simulations across migration scenarios. From these simulations we identified the “best K” using model likelihood and ΔK. Our findings show that mean probability plots and ΔK are unable to resolve the correct number of populations once migration rate exceeds 0.005. We also found a strong bias towards selecting K = 2 using the ΔK method. We used these data to identify the range of values where the ΔK statistic identifies a value of K that is not well supported. Finally, using the simulations and a review of empirical data, we found that the magnitude of ΔK corresponds to the level of divergence between populations. Based on our findings, we suggest researchers should use the ΔK method cautiously; they need to report all relevant data, including the magnitude of ΔK, and an estimate of connectivity for the research community to assess whether meaningful genetic structure exists within the context of management and conservation.     

Evaluating the effectiveness of retention forestry to enhance biodiversity in production forests of Central Europe using an interdisciplinary,multi‐scale approach

Retention forestry, which retains a portion of the original stand at the time of harvesting to maintain continuity of structural and compositional diversity, has been originally developed to mitigate the impacts of clear‐cutting. Retention of habitat trees and deadwood has since become common practice also in continuous‐cover forests of Central Europe. While the use of retention in these forests is plausible, the evidence base for its application is lacking, trade‐offs have not been quantified, it is not clear what support it receives from forest owners and other stakeholders and how it is best integrated into forest management practices. The Research Training Group ConFoBi (Conservation of Forest Biodiversity in Multiple‐use Landscapes of Central Europe) focusses on the effectiveness of retention forestry, combining ecological studies on forest biodiversity with social and economic studies of biodiversity conservation across multiple spatial scales. The aim of ConFoBi is to assess whether and how structural retention measures are appropriate for the conservation of forest biodiversity in uneven‐aged and selectively harvested continuous‐cover forests of temperate Europe. The study design is based on a pool of 135 plots (1 ha) distributed along gradients of forest connectivity and structure. The main objectives are (a) to investigate the effects of structural elements and landscape context on multiple taxa, including different trophic and functional groups, to evaluate the effectiveness of retention practices for biodiversity conservation; (b) to analyze how forest biodiversity conservation is perceived and practiced, and what costs and benefits it creates; and (c) to identify how biodiversity conservation can be effectively integrated in multi‐functional forest management. ConFoBi will quantify retention levels required across the landscape, as well as the socio‐economic prerequisites for their implementation by forest owners and managers. ConFoBi's research results will provide an evidence base for integrating biodiversity conservation into forest management in temperate forests.     

Andean and California condors possess dissimilar genetic composition but exhibit similar demographic histories

While genetic diversity of threatened species is a major concern of conservation biologists, historic patterns of genetic variation are often unknown. A powerful approach to assess patterns and processes of genetic erosion is via ancient DNA techniques. Herein, we analyzed mtDNA from historical samples (1800s to present) of Andean Condors (Vultur gryphus) to investigate whether contemporary low genetic variability is the result of recent human expansion and persecution, and compared this genetic history to that of California condors (Gymnogyps californianus).We then explored historic demographies for both species via coalescent simulations. We found that Andean condors have lost at least 17% of their genetic variation in the early 20th century. Unlike California condors, however, low mtDNA diversity in the Andean condor was mostly ancient, before European arrival. However, we found that both condor species shared similar demographies in that population bottlenecks were recent and co‐occurred with the introduction of livestock to the Americas and the global collapse of marine mammals. Given the combined information on genetic and demographic processes, we suggest that the protection of key habitats should be targeted for conserving extant genetic diversity and facilitate the natural recolonization of lost territories, while nuclear genomic data should be used to inform translocation plans.